I'll be that math nerd. His lifetime field goal percentage is 0.45. That means that in a string of 16 attempts, one time out of 14,000 or so he'll have 16 misses in a row. He's played over 1000 games, and in a typical game how many attempts does he have at a field goal? A bad run as long as the one you are citing is not that surprising.
To settle the question, you have to collect more data and carefully analyze statistics. And when you do that, the data doesn't support the existence of streaks. But you don't believe those statistics. How to convince you?
Well under your theory that there are streaks, you should expect to see record streaks out there that are longer than statistics would suggest possible. For instance if there are 500 players across time who've had a .45 field goal percentage, who've averaged 20,000 shots each, statistics says that the record streak of consecutive field goals made should be somewhere in the range 18-23 or so. If those people have even a slight tendency towards streaks on top of those percentages, you'd expect the length of the top streaks to get higher. If, during a streak, they shoot about .55, then under the same assumptions the top streak should be 25-30 or so.
So we have a test. Look at the longest streaks and see if they are longer than expected. Not even a lot longer, just slightly longer will do. Lots of sports keep track of lots of player stats, and streaks. In a fascinating essay many years ago Stephen J. Gould pointed out that, across all sports tracked and all types of streaks records are kept for, all but one are within a statistically plausible range given the number of players, games, and their playing averages.
The lone exception is Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak in 1941. That one is truly exceptional, a repeat is unlikely in the next thousand years. However when you look at the second, third, etc performances, they are in line with what statistics suggests is likely.
Now what about this college kid that you were talking about? The answer there is interesting. College is played at a more varied level than the professional leagues. Therefore there is more variation in player performance. Exceptional performances become much more likely if you add even a small number of players who are hitting somewhat more reliably. So his streak is not as impressive as it may seem.
Incidentally this applies to DiMaggio. When he played, pro baseball wasn't as consistent as it is today, so he was able to sustain stats that were above what you find in today's players. In fact http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020455680457426... reports on a Monte Carlo simulation of baseball that used every historical player and season with their actual hitting percentages. Fully 42% of the simulated histories had a streak as long as DiMaggio's or longer.
Therefore even a slight tendency towards streaks should show up clearly in the record books. But nowhere in the record books is there any streak that shows strong evidence of streakiness.
To settle the question, you have to collect more data and carefully analyze statistics. And when you do that, the data doesn't support the existence of streaks. But you don't believe those statistics. How to convince you?
Well under your theory that there are streaks, you should expect to see record streaks out there that are longer than statistics would suggest possible. For instance if there are 500 players across time who've had a .45 field goal percentage, who've averaged 20,000 shots each, statistics says that the record streak of consecutive field goals made should be somewhere in the range 18-23 or so. If those people have even a slight tendency towards streaks on top of those percentages, you'd expect the length of the top streaks to get higher. If, during a streak, they shoot about .55, then under the same assumptions the top streak should be 25-30 or so.
So we have a test. Look at the longest streaks and see if they are longer than expected. Not even a lot longer, just slightly longer will do. Lots of sports keep track of lots of player stats, and streaks. In a fascinating essay many years ago Stephen J. Gould pointed out that, across all sports tracked and all types of streaks records are kept for, all but one are within a statistically plausible range given the number of players, games, and their playing averages.
The lone exception is Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak in 1941. That one is truly exceptional, a repeat is unlikely in the next thousand years. However when you look at the second, third, etc performances, they are in line with what statistics suggests is likely.
Now what about this college kid that you were talking about? The answer there is interesting. College is played at a more varied level than the professional leagues. Therefore there is more variation in player performance. Exceptional performances become much more likely if you add even a small number of players who are hitting somewhat more reliably. So his streak is not as impressive as it may seem.
Incidentally this applies to DiMaggio. When he played, pro baseball wasn't as consistent as it is today, so he was able to sustain stats that were above what you find in today's players. In fact http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020455680457426... reports on a Monte Carlo simulation of baseball that used every historical player and season with their actual hitting percentages. Fully 42% of the simulated histories had a streak as long as DiMaggio's or longer.
Therefore even a slight tendency towards streaks should show up clearly in the record books. But nowhere in the record books is there any streak that shows strong evidence of streakiness.