So no-one's mind is going to be changed, regardless.
I think people's minds will be changed. Just the most outspoken, like Gruber or Siegler, dominate the conversation and their minds never change.
For example, I thought the iPad would be a modest success and a disappointing product (after seeing the launch). Now, it is obviously a huge success. But more importantly I think it fundamentally changed how we think about computing devices -- in a good way.
of course, I don't have a great pulpit to speak from, nor do I like to blather on about how wrong I was, but nevertheless minds do get changed... even if quietly.
In that case, either they sell a million on day one or they don't (this presumes that we are ever told or can divine a semi-reliable sales estimate). His opinion doesn't enter into it.
I'd say part of the reason he is and remains popular is that he pretty consistently tries to present the data or line of reasoning behind the opinion, and on occasion adjusts to fit the new data...and but says so when it happens.
I think people's minds will be changed. Just the most outspoken, like Gruber or Siegler, dominate the conversation and their minds never change.
For example, I thought the iPad would be a modest success and a disappointing product (after seeing the launch). Now, it is obviously a huge success. But more importantly I think it fundamentally changed how we think about computing devices -- in a good way.
of course, I don't have a great pulpit to speak from, nor do I like to blather on about how wrong I was, but nevertheless minds do get changed... even if quietly.