While I agree that he only touched on NFTs and not really anything beyond that, his core point, "decentralized architecture is slower to iterate on, therefore centralized tools will outpace decentralized ones, therefore the market will trend towards use of centralized services" is hard to disagree with. He is only using the NFT market as an example to demonstrate this point.
Even if you don't consider it natural market forces, and you say "people are building their infrastructure on centralized services so as to place themselves in a rent seeking position", you now wind up having to explain how you intend to stop these "bad actors" from not doing the "right thing" and designing their infrastructure against their own interest. How do you align incentives to ensure a decentralized future in this way? Seems like a glaring hole in the entire plan that results in centralized services being in wider use, only bolting on top of a decentralized database that in the end doesn't really matter.
I'm a big fan of cryptocurrency and these decentralized incentive networks. I'd love to see a future where everyone doesn't rely on these centralized services and the UX is low friction. I think it can be done. I like to know that I can use decentralized uncensorable money, and other asset types, and I like the fact that these options are available today, right now, to me and anyone else who values them. But the web3 concept as it's sold by the cryptocurrency enthusiasts doesn't appear to be going that direction, and at this point I think moxie is probably right.
> "decentralized architecture is slower to iterate on, therefore centralized tools will outpace decentralized ones, therefore the market will trend towards use of centralized services"
This is a good point and something I find very concerning. But remember, the Internet itself is a decentralized tool and it eventually triumphed over the centralized ones. Even with Google, Apple, Amazon, etc. we're still more decentralized than if everyone were still on CompuServe or AOL.
> He is only using the NFT market as an example to demonstrate this point
I don't think so, he pretty clearly issues a disclaimer about the limits of his knowledge. He's extrapolating (with an admittedly insightful proposition) from a limited amount of knowledge and is being honest about that.
> How do you align incentives to ensure a decentralized future in this way?
That's a very good question. Many smart people are working on answers to it. I like to think I'm one of them.
> Seems like a glaring hole in the entire plan
There is no plan -- and ultimately that's a good thing.
> results in centralized services being in wider use
Actually, I fear the result will more likely be failure for these centralized services that results in a backlash that delays the decentralized ones from emerging.
> I'm a big fan of cryptocurrency and these decentralized incentive networks.
Me, too. Obviously.
> UX is low friction
That is an incredibly important point.
> web3 concept as it's sold by the cryptocurrency enthusiasts doesn't appear to be going that direction, and at this point I think moxie is probably right.
*Some* cryptocurrency enthusiasts, but yeah it's a problem and unfortunately Moxie is mostly right.
Even if you don't consider it natural market forces, and you say "people are building their infrastructure on centralized services so as to place themselves in a rent seeking position", you now wind up having to explain how you intend to stop these "bad actors" from not doing the "right thing" and designing their infrastructure against their own interest. How do you align incentives to ensure a decentralized future in this way? Seems like a glaring hole in the entire plan that results in centralized services being in wider use, only bolting on top of a decentralized database that in the end doesn't really matter.
I'm a big fan of cryptocurrency and these decentralized incentive networks. I'd love to see a future where everyone doesn't rely on these centralized services and the UX is low friction. I think it can be done. I like to know that I can use decentralized uncensorable money, and other asset types, and I like the fact that these options are available today, right now, to me and anyone else who values them. But the web3 concept as it's sold by the cryptocurrency enthusiasts doesn't appear to be going that direction, and at this point I think moxie is probably right.