Whats hypothetical about it? Nothing I said was hypothetical. The company is doing some math to determine that the roic is below their coc or some similar measurement. So they could pay a dividend or buyback shares. Now it is true that the motivations for either could have many reasons. It is also true that after the buyback happens, prices could go back down...it is a market with changing information constantly. So yes a dividend is not a buyback but they are both ways to return capital to shareholders.