I think we're approaching this from different angles. 1 in 30 is better than the observed rate, but worse than the estimated rate.

FWIW, the 1/12 is also actually off, the long-term mortality rate for Apollo astronauts is high.

But so is the 1/1000, Nasa's own estimates were so bad that they decided it was bad optics to keep doing them - https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20190002249/downloads/20...