I agree. But this won't happen in the US because Anthropic / OpenAI is a big ol economic recession risk because we levered ourselves to the tits and put our chips on them.
OAI and Anthropic can actually both tank, MS would pick up OAI's IP, Amazon would pick up Anthropic's, and Google would keep cruising. We'd have a model plateau for a while but ultimate AI would keep on chugging.
If AI fails as a technology, it's going to lead to a great depression and probably either a revolution or WWIII.